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New York Governor Polls: Zeldin Momentum Stalls as Hochul Pulls SIGNIFICANTLY Ahead

New York Governor Polls Kathy Hochul: 50.3%, Lee Zeldin: 42.0%
Google Search Share Kathy Hochul: 38%, Lee Zeldin: 62%
Net Social Media Sentiment: Kathy Hochul: -50.7%, Lee Zeldin: -38.5%
CrowdwisdomLive Prediction: Hochul Win (Prediction changed on October 24th)


When is the New York Governor’s Race Scheduled?

The 2022 Governor Election in New York is set to take place on November 8th, 2022 to elect the representative.

Zeldin vs Hochul Polls: Who is Gaining?

  • Polls: Hochul
  • Google Search Volume: Hochul
  • Social Media Sentiment: Zeldin

NY Governor Polls: Campaign Observations and Insights

  1. Kathy Hochul now leads by 6.7% points with one poll giving Zeldin a slight lead.
  2. Favorability Rating (New)
    • Hochul is 48% on Favorability, 33% don’t like her, a Net of +15%
    • Zeldin is 40% on Favorability, 38% don’t like him, a Net of +2%
  3. Voting Groups: Where is Hochul leading? (New)
    • +57% among black voters
    • +50% in New York City
    • +43% among those who are under 35
    • +22% among Hispanic voters
    • +19% among those who are between 50 and 35
    • +19% among women
  4. Voting Groups: Where is Hochul Struggling? (New)
    • -5% in Upper West Side
    • -2% in Long Island
    • Hochul leads by 2 among those who are between 50 and 65 years of age
    • +3% lead among White Population
    • +3% in Hudson Valley/ Capital District
    • +5% among Independent voters
  5. On Google Search, Hochul trails Zeldin 36-64. In 2018, Andrew Cuomo (Democrat) led Marc Molinaro 82-18. Cuomo had the advantage of being the Governor for 8 years in 2018 but the fact that Hochul is trailing Zeldin should worry her.
    • In August, Hochul led Led Zeldin: 71% to 29%
    • In September, Hochul led Zeldin: 51% to 49%
    • In October, Hochul Trails Zeldin: 31% to 69%
  6. Which groups are deserting Hochul? Let us compare the SurveyUSA poll of October with the SurveyUSA poll of August
    • (-10%) among White Voters
    • (-10%) among Men
    • (-8%) among Moderate voters
    • (-5%) among Independent Voters

New York Governor Polls: Hochul vs Zeldin Polls

Date
Average of All Hochul vs Zeldin Polls October 18th-25th
Kathy Hochul (D) 50.3%
Lee Zeldin (R) 42.0%
Civics October 22-25th
Kathy Hochul (D) 54%
Lee Zeldin (R) 43%
Bold Decision October 16-20th
Kathy Hochul (D) 52%
Lee Zeldin (R) 37%
co/efficient (R) October 18-19th
Kathy Hochul(D) 45%
Lee Zeldin(R) 46%
Average of last 4 Elections
Democrats 61%
Republicans 34%

Can Lee Zeldin win the NY Governor race?

The answer is YES.

  1. Kathy Hochul has an approval of 53% with 42% disapproving of how she is doing her job (Siena Poll). This is not a terrible rating but borderline risky
  2. The Economy is the top issue in the election (38% of voters) and NY State has an unemployment rate higher than the national average. Inflation while high is lower than the National average. Kathy Hochul could be struggling with the economy but by presenting herself as a change agent, she is distancing herself from Cuomo’s missteps.
  3. Gun Violence, Crime, and Immigration were cited as most important by 21% of the respondents and the Democrats have traditionally struggled on this issue.
  4. Healthcare and abortion are critical for 24% of the respondents, the Democrats would have a substantial lead on this issue
  5. The swing needed is huge but if Zeldin spends more time on the economy instead of bail, he would probably have a better chance of winning this election.
  6. Either way, this will be the closest NY Gubernatorial race in years.

New York Governor Race 2022 Polls: Google Search Share

Last 7 days

  • Kathy Hochul – 38%
  • Lee Zeldin – 62%

Zeldin vs Hochul Polls: Social Media Sentiment Tracker

Last 7 days

  • Hochul: (-50.7%, Deteriorating)
  • Zeldin: (-38.5%, Deteriorating)

New York Governor Race: Lee Zeldin’s Take on Different Issues

Bail Law: Recently Lee Zeldin was at a campaign event, however, within a few days, his attacker was released on cashless bail. He was released on his own recognizance despite being charged with attempted assault in the second degree.

Since then Lee Zeldin has demanded to bring a reform in cashless bail law and also said that the judges should have discretion when considering who should remain in police custody. However, Kathy Hochul refused to comment on this issue and she ruled out any discussion about the amendments to state bail laws until January next year. This move of Kathy Hochul indicates that she does not want to disturb her voter base at any cost until the General elections are over.

Mandatory 40-hour Workweek for Farm Laborers: In the state of New York, previously there was a mandatory 60-hour workweek for the farm laborers and beyond it, the farm owners were to pay bonuses to the laborers. Now New York’s Farm Laborers Wage Board has ended the 60-hour workweek and replaced it with a 40-hour workweek, meaning after 40 hours of work in a week the farm owners will be liable to pay bonuses to the laborers.

Lee Zeldin has started to raise his voice against this move. Recently he was at a farm in Albany County where the farm owners have gathered at the Stanton family farm to protest against this latest rule. However, Kathy Hochul refused to comment on this issue and she ruled out any discussion about the amendments to state bail laws until January next year. This move of Kathy Hochul indicates that she does not want to disturb her voter base at any cost until the General elections are over.

NY Governor Race Polls: Polling Average Last 3 elections and Result

The politics in New York has been mostly dominated by the Democratic Party. The Governor of New York has been mostly from Democratic Party. The last time a Republican became a Governor of New York was back in 2022 when George Pataki won the Governor election. The last 3 New York Governor’s elections have been won by the Democratic Party. The last 3 New York Governor elections were held in 2010, 2014, and 2018. Here are a few details regarding the last 3 New York Governor elections:

2018 New York Governor Race: The 2018 New York gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018. The incumbent Governor, Andrew Cuomo ran for re-election for 3rd term in the office. He was up against activist Cynthia Nixon in the Primary election whom he defeated without much difficulty.

For the general election, he was up against the Republican Marc Molinaro. The polls for the General election were mostly one-sided with most of the polls predicting an easy win for Andrew Cuomo. The polls gave Cuomo around a 15-20% lead over his Republican rival Marc Molinaro. The result of the election was in line with the poll prediction. Andrew Cuomo won the election and was elected to the office of the Governor of New York for the third consecutive time. He polled 59.62% of the total votes. His opponent, Marc Molinaro got a 36.21% vote share.

However, Cuomo could not complete his third term as Governor of New York. He had to resign from the office of the Governor of New York after several charges of sexual harassment. Andrew Cuomo was succeeded by Kathy Hochul as a new Governor of New York.

NY Governor Polls: 2014 New York Governor Race: In 2014, Andrew Cuomo ran for re-election to the second term in the office. However, Lieutenant Governor Robert Duffy did not run for re-election. Kathy Hochul the current Governor of New York ran for the office of Lieutenant Governor.

The election was held on November 4th, 2014. Cuomo and Hochul were up against the Republican Rob Astorino and Chris Moss. The polls for the Governor election were one-sided with almost all the polls giving over 20% lead to Andrew Cuomo over Rob Astorino. However, the result was slightly different than the poll prediction.

Andrew Cuomo was able to retain the office of Governor of New York but his victory lead was less than what was predicted by the polls. Cuomo polled 54.3% of the total votes while Rob Astorino received 40.3% vote share. The victory margin of Andrew Cuomo was 14%.

New York Governor Race 2022 Polls: How Did New York Vote In 2020?

New York has been a blue state and Democrats have always dominated the state. In 2020 Biden defeated Trump by a massive 23%. Of the total votes polled, Biden got 60.9% while Trump received only 37.7% of the total votes.

New York has a total of 62 counties and 29 electoral votes. Trump led in 41 counties while Biden with 21 counties to his name won the state. The counties that played an important role in deciding the outcome in New York were:

  • Albany County: Biden: 64.8% Trump: 33.2%
  • Bronx County: Biden: 83.4% Trump: 15.9%
  • Brooklyn County: Biden: 77% Trump: 22.2%

New York Governor Race 2022 Polls: Racial Demographics

As per the latest 2020 Census Figures, the demographics of the state are as follows:

  • White American: 54.5%
  • Black American: 16.8%
  • Hispanic American: 18.2%
  • Asian American: 10.6%
  • Native American: 1.9%
  • Others: 0.2%

White Americans are a majority of voters in the Republican Primary. Democratic strength comes from New York City which is very diverse, however, Trump did well in Staten Island as well as the Orthodox Jewish and white working-class areas in Brooklyn.

Indeed Trump made his biggest gains in the state with non-white voters in New York City. Long Island has been trending rapidly Democratic whereas “Upstate New York” remains competitive for both parties – Democrats win urban cities like Rochester, Buffalo, Albany, and Syracuse while Republicans win in rural areas, especially in the rural western part of the state that borders Pennsylvania.

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